bout de papier, Vol. 25, No. 2 (2010) — Summer 2010 // Été 2010, pp. 7–8
Hark Kroll’s piece on Yemen (bout de papier Volume 25, No. 1) brought back vivid memories of my own visits to that lovely but troubled country. My first posting was Jeddah, Saudi Arabia. There being two Yemens in the late 70s, the Ambassador assigned me responsibility for the northern one. Rodney Moore, our first secretary, was tasked with the more important South Yemen… where there were socialists, possibly terrorists and even Communists in residence.
As far as I was concerned, it was a wonderful division of labour. Not only was the climate far better in Sana’a (almost 2.5 km high) than in coastal Aden, but the city and its hinterland held the promise of adventure. A few cherished tales will have to wait for another day: fleeing through the UNESCO Heritage sug with, if not quite a howling mob, certainly an irate shopkeeper at my heels; or my encounter with a Danish businessman who probably is still convinced that he had dinner with two international contract killers…
Yemen has changed dramatically since those early and simpler days. I never felt unsafe there despite sleeping through an attempted coup and the omnipresent personal weaponry – every male over puberty seemed to be wearing a jambiya (the traditional Yemeni dagger), often accessorized with an AK-47. Today the situation has changed: in 2000, a suicide attack against the USS Cole, a warship refueling in Aden harbour, was claimed by Al-Qaeda. It drew the attention of the world to Yemen. Now the aptly-named “Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula” is operating there and has carried out attacks against foreigners (our Embassy has instructed staff not to travel to Yemen). Umar Farouk Abd al-Mutallib (the “underwear” bomber) allegedly was trained in Yemen and sent off from there. An American-born, now radicalized Muslim cleric, Anwar al-Awlaki, lives somewhere in the country. Predator drones patrol the skies, seeking terrorist targets. With its traditional virtue of hospitality and its tribal distrust of centralized authority, Yemen -like Afghanistan and the tribal areas of Pakistan – has become a refuge and a jumping-off point for radical Islamists as they carry out their campaign against conservative Arab regimes and the West writ large.
How did it change? Perhaps Yemen has not changed; perhaps it has just gone farther along a path that should have been evident, if only we had known enough to go looking. Yemen has long been a place of refuge and sanctuary for those seeking shelter from persecution and repression. Even the great Saladin made sure that it was firmly in the grasp of one of his family members before he launched his final great campaign against the Crusaders, allegedly in case he needed a bolt hole.
The geography of the country is dramatic and lends itself to isolation and general separation from external influences. The coastal plain along the Red Sea is hot, humid and almost African in appearance. From the plain the mountains rise into the dramatic, rugged and heavily terraced mountainous core of the country. This is where the bulk of the population has traditionally lived and where most of the main cities are located. Villages seem to hang on the sides of rugged cliffs and transport routes are such that although two villages might be able to see each other, it might be a two-day trek on a donkey to call on your neighbour. Beyond the mountains the desert stretches east into the Rub’ al-Khali (the Empty Quarter) – the largest and perhaps the most hostile sand desert in the world.
It is a country of significant internal tensions: traditional tribal structures compete with moderately democratic institutions (both the President and the lower house are elected in what is often described as the most democratic process in the Arabian Peninsula – although the standards are not very high). The population is almost evenly split between Sunnis (52%) and Zaydi Shi’a (46%). While both sides are usually tolerant, it is not unknown for violence to break out. A much smaller group, the Houthis, are Shi’a and bear close watching. They continue their six-year rebellion against the centralized authority of Sana’a. Their 2009 crossing of the border into Saudi Arabia brought the wrath of the latter’s military down on them. However, if the Houthi rebellion can be contained, it seems likely that sectarian rivalries in Yemen will not get too badly out of hand.
The situation in Yemen is exacerbated by the state of its economy – it is the most impoverished state in the Arabian Peninsula.
Unemployment is estimated at 35% and over 45% of the population is believed to live below the poverty line. Yemen’s natural resources are few. Petroleum was discovered during the late 1970s and at one point was providing some 25% of the country’s revenues, but reserves are expected to be depleted by 2017. Significant sources of natural gas may help mitigate the loss of the petroleum revenues, but they are yet to be fully developed. If the economy is further depressed, it can only make the efforts of those trying to counter the extremists that much more difficult.
Other major sources of foreign currency are remittances from expatriate workers. This revenue is not dependable, as was demonstrated in 1990. An estimated 850,000 workers were deported that year from the Gulf states because Yemen, then sitting on the Security Council, refused to vote for the “use of force resolution” against Iraq. Foreign aid, never great and primarily from the Soviet Union and China, was also cut off by neighbouring and European states at the same time.
The past is done. Looking to the future, CIDA notes that:
Yemen ranks 15lst out of 177 countries on the Human Development Index (UNDP Human Development Report 2005) and remains one of the poorest countries in the world. Yemen faces considerable challenges, such as low water resources, a lack of arable land, a life expectancy of 60 years, a literacy rate of 49 percent, and one of the widest gender gaps in the world. In recent years, Yemen has been making efforts to improve its performance in governance, human rights, and democracy. In addition, the government of Yemen has recently adopted a poverty reduction strategy.
Yet CIDA also declares:
The Canadian International Development Agency (CIDA) does not maintain a significant assistance program in Yemen and has no long-term projects planned for this country.
If Canada won’t help, will anyone else? Probably not. The U.S. wants to send military aid and Saudi Arabia would probably help the Sunnis, as long as the Shi’a don’t benefit. But the Saudis typically are their national interests are threatened. Some Europeans will help – they have been there in the past and will be again – but when set against the scale of the problems, their assistance will be a drop in the ocean. In January over 20 foreign ministers, including all the G8 member states, participated in a hastily called two-hour international conference in London on Yemen – a day before a previously planned conference on Afghanistan. No pledges or promises were made, but there were several affirmations of support contingent upon the government of Yemen continuing its process of reform, ending corruption, fighting terrorism, etc.
If the West is true to form, there will be a great deal of hand-wringing until the amount of jihadist violence originating in Yemen reaches an unacceptable level – which means it achieves some success against Westerners and their allies. Then watch the aid pour in. Given the track record of such aid programs in the recent past, military assistance will also be offered and this will be difficult for the government of Yemen to reject. As is often the case in “too little, too late” scenarios, political stability will not improve and the overall situation may well deteriorate further. An environment not unlike that prevailing in the tribal areas of Pakistan could arise and would be as difficult to reform.
Aid programs must respond to the needs and desires of the people. Development agencies must demonstrate to ordinary Yemenis that the goal of their programs is to help them and that donor governments think strategically and are not just reacting to the extremists. “Old hands” like me know very well that we can’t go back in time to fix things before they become crises, but it would be nice to see Western governments start on serious development assistance before jihadist efforts are crowned with success. The Yemenis may have invented coffee, but it is up to us to smell it.
View the original scanned pages →
Originally published in bout de papier, Vol. 25, No. 2 (2010) — Summer 2010 // Été 2010, pp. 7–8. Read the rest of this issue →
